Buyer Beware
Monday, 28 July 2014
Take care when buying a tournament player's action.
By True Irish Baller
By the time this hits the shelves, the WSOP will be in full swing. The best of the best will have headed for Vegas in the pursuit of gold (in the form of a bracelet) and riches. Thankfully for all those of us who aren’t the best, an absolute shedload of recreational amateur players who just love the game will also hit up Sin City. These are the guys that make the entire trip profitable – it’s their (usually close to) dead money that the pros get into flipping matches for.
In the lead up to the WSOP, I have seen many people sell packages for events over the festival and to be honest, I could count on one hand those that represented genuine value. Mark-up has truly become the scourge of the poker community. It seems almost every “winning” player is charging ridiculously over-the-top mark-up, and so many packages are –EV. Just because you won the Hot 11 a few months back doesn’t mean you should be entitled to charge 1.30:1 in the Main Event. It sickens me beyond belief to see some packages, and it’s even worse when I attempt to question them regarding their package and they cannot even begin to tell me how they reached that figure.
Over the top mark-up is one topic that really pisses me off beyond belief. It can be blatantly seen who is trying to take the general public for a ride and who isn’t. I’m not of the train of thought saying, “Oh, the market will decide.” Frankly, I find that line of thinking absolute bullshit. Tons of people have many friends within the game who will blindly buy any well-known player without thinking. Because of these guys' misinformed purchases, the market trends for future purchases will be grossly affected.
If a break-even player can get away with selling a –EV package, then a much better player will then look to sell an even more expensive package. This as a whole is not good for investors or the game in general. The knock-on effect of all this is we are left with hardly any profitable investments for our dollar. At the end of the day, we all want the best value for our buck.
So, next time you see a package for some live MTTs, I implore you all to take a minute before investing and examine the mark-up closely. If their mark-up is 1.3:1, for example, you should probably be estimating the guy has at least a 60% ROI in the field at hand to make it worth your while. There is literally zero point in investing in a guy with that mark-up who has, in your opinion, a 30% ROI. This is simply breakeven and not even remotely a good investment.
Don’t simply invest in a guy just because he’s well known and liked. Use your brain when investing in horses, and don’t be afraid to question the player’s package. I don’t mean to be completely stereotyping, but if they aren’t willing to even discuss the mark-up with you, then they usually have something to hide. Either that, or they don’t actually believe the package is +EV themselves, and are simply out to make a quick buck from mug punters.
Probably the most important thing of all is to only invest in players you trust. There are far too many scumbags these days willing to run off with cash and screw you over. Be smart, think, and don’t blindly punt – because otherwise you will probably be as well off sticking your loot on the virtual racing at Brushwood.